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Abstract. We developed a new rule-based, cellular-automaton algorithm for predicting the hazard extent, sediment transport, and topographic change associated with the runout of a landslide. This algorithm, which we call MassWastingRunout (MWR), is coded in Python and implemented as a component for the package Landlab. MWR combines the functionality of simple runout algorithms used in landscape evolution and watershed sediment yield models with the predictive detail typical of runout models used for landslide inundation hazard mapping. An initial digital elevation model (DEM), a regolith depth map, and the location polygon of the landslide source area are the only inputs required to run MWR to model the entire runout process. Runout relies on the principle of mass conservation and a set of topographic rules and empirical formulas that govern erosion and deposition. For the purpose of facilitating rapid calibration to a site, MWR includes a calibration utility that uses an adaptive Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm to automatically calibrate the model to match observed runout extent, deposition, and erosion. Additionally, the calibration utility produces empirical probability density functions of each calibration parameter that can be used to inform probabilistic implementation of MWR. Here we use a series of synthetic terrains to demonstrate basic model response to topographic convergence and slope, test calibrated model performance relative to several observed landslides, and briefly demonstrate how MWR can be used to develop a probabilistic runout hazard map. A calibrated runout model may allow for region-specific and more insightful predictions of landslide impact on landscape morphology and watershed-scale sediment dynamics and should be further investigated in future modeling studies. 

Key Points Modeled ecosystem response to climate follows the “geo‐ecological law of distribution,” highlights the importance of ecohdyrologic refugia Woody Plant Encroachment is predicted as a three‐phase phenomenon: early establishment, rapid expansion, and woody plant equilibrium Regime shifts from grassland to shrubland are marked by vegetation cover thresholds 

Abstract. We developed a new approach for mapping landslide hazards by combiningprobabilities of landslide impacts derived from a data-driven statisticalapproach and a physically based model of shallow landsliding. Ourstatistical approach integrates the influence of seven site attributes (SAs) onobserved landslides using a frequency ratio (FR) method. Influential attributesand resulting susceptibility maps depend on the observations of landslidesconsidered: all types of landslides, debris avalanches only, or source areasof debris avalanches. These observational datasets reflect the detection ofdifferent landslide processes or components, which relate to differentlandslide-inducing factors. For each landslide dataset, a stability index (SI) is calculated as a multiplicative result of the frequency ratios for all attributes and is mapped across our study domain in the North Cascades National Park Complex (NOCA), Washington, USA. A continuous function is developed to relate local SI values to landslide probability based on a ratio of landslide and non-landslide grid cells. The empirical model probability derived from the debris avalanche source area dataset is combined probabilistically with a previously developed physically based probabilistic model. A two-dimensional binning method employs empirical andphysically based probabilities as indices and calculates a joint probabilityof landsliding at the intersections of probability bins. A ratio of thejoint probability and the physically based model bin probability is used asa weight to adjust the original physically based probability at each gridcell given empirical evidence. The resulting integrated probability oflandslide initiation hazard includes mechanisms not captured by the infinite-slope stability model alone. Improvements in distinguishing potentiallyunstable areas with the proposed integrated model are statisticallyquantified. We provide multiple landslide hazard maps that land managers canuse for planning and decision-making, as well as for educating the publicabout hazards from landslides in this remote high-relief terrain. 

Abstract Changes in the severity and likelihood of flooding events are typically associated with changes in the intensity and frequency of streamflows, but temporal adjustments in a river's conveyance capacity can also contribute to shifts in flood hazard. To assess the relative importance of channel conveyance to flood hazard, we compare variations in channel conveyance to variations in the flow magnitude of moderate (1.2 years) floods at 50 river gauges in western Washington State between 1930 and 2020. In unregulated rivers, moderate floods have increased across the region, but in regulated rivers this trend is suppressed and in some cases reversed. Variations in channel conveyance are ubiquitous, but the magnitude and timing of adjustments are not regionally uniform. At 40% of gages, conveyance changes steadily and gradually. More often, however, conveyance variability is nonlinear, consisting of multidecadal oscillations (36% of gages), rapid changes due to unusually large sediment‐supply events (14% of gages), and increases or decreases to conveyance following flow regulation (10% of gages). The relative importance of conveyance variability for flood risk depends on the mode of adjustment; in certain locations with historic landslides, extreme floods, and flow regulation, the influence of conveyance changes on flood risk matches or exceeds that of streamflow at the same site. Flood hazard management would benefit from incorporating historic long‐term and short‐term conveyance changes in predictions of future flood hazard variability. 

Abstract. Numerical simulation of the form and characteristics of Earth's surface provides insight into its evolution. Landlab is an open-source Python package that contains modularized elements of numerical models for Earth's surface, thus reducing time required for researchers to create new or reimplement existing models. Landlab contains a gridding engine which represents the model domain as a dual graph of structured quadrilaterals (e.g., raster) or irregular Voronoi polygon–Delaunay triangle mesh (e.g., regular hexagons, radially symmetric meshes, and fully irregular meshes). Landlab also contains components – modular implementations of single physical processes – and a suite of utilities that support numerical methods, input/output, and visualization. This contribution describes package development since version 1.0 and backward-compatibility-breaking changes that necessitate the new major release, version 2.0. Substantial changes include refactoring the grid, improving the component standard interface, dropping Python 2 support, and creating 31 new components – for a total of 58 components in the Landlab package. We describe reasons why many changes were made in order to provide insight for designers of future packages. We conclude by discussing lessons about the dynamics of scientific software development gained from the experience of using, developing, maintaining, and teaching with Landlab. 

Abstract Modeled stream discharge is often used to drive sediment transport models across channel networks. Because sediment transport varies non‐linearly with flow rates, discharge modeled from daily total precipitation distributed evenly over 24‐hr may significantly underestimate actual bedload transport capacity. In this study, we assume bedload transport capacity determined from a hydrograph resulting from the use of hourly (1‐hr) precipitation is a close approximation of actual transport capacity and quantify the error introduced into a network‐scale bedload transport model driven by daily precipitation at channel network locations varying from lowland pool‐riffle channels to upland colluvial channels in a watershed where snow accumulation and melt can affect runoff processes. Transport capacity is determined using effective stresses and the Wilcock and Crowe (2003) equations and expressed in terms of transport capacity normalized by the bankfull value. We find that, depending on channel network location, cumulative error can range from 10% to more than two orders of magnitude. Surprisingly, variation in flow rates due to differences in hillslope and channel runoff do not seem to dictate the network locations where the largest errors in predicted bedload transport capacity occur. Rather, spatial variability of the magnitude of the effective‐bankfull‐excess shear stress and changes in runoff due to snow accumulation and melt exert the greatest influence. These findings have implications for flood‐hazard and aquatic habitat models that rely on modeled sediment transport driven by coarse‐temporal‐resolution climate data. 

Abstract A mountain watershed network model is presented for use in decadal to centurial estimation of source‐to‐sink sediment dynamics. The model requires limited input parameters and can be effectively applied over spatial scales relevant to management of reservoirs, lakes, streams, and watersheds (1–100 km²). The model operates over a connected stream network of Strahler‐ordered segments. The model is driven by streamflow from a physically based hydrology model and hillslope sediment supply from a stochastic mass wasting algorithm. For each daily time step, segment‐scale sediment mass balance is computed using bedload and suspended load transport equations. Sediment transport is partitioned between grain size fractions for bedload as gravel and sand, and for suspended load as sand and mud. Bedload and suspended load can deposit and re‐entrain at each segment. We demonstrated the model in the Elwha River Basin, upstream of the former Glines Canyon dam, over the dam's historic 84‐year lifespan. The model predicted the lifetime reservoir sedimentation volume within the uncertainty range of the measured volume (13.7–18.5 million m³) for 25 of 28 model instances. Gravel, sand, and mud fraction volumes were predicted within measurement uncertainty ranges for 18 model instances. The network model improved the prediction of sediment yields compared to at‐a‐station sediment transport capacity relations. The network model also provided spatially and temporally distributed information that allowed for inquiry and understanding of the physical system beyond the sediment yields at the outlet. This work advances cross‐disciplinary and application‐oriented watershed sediment yield modeling approaches.